2018/4/24
In the current economic downward pressure is further increased, the analysts believe that, in addition to interest rates, as well as necessary, with the effective exchange rate of RMB devaluation.
Since entering the second half of 2014, the dollar continued to rise, reaching the highest point since the 2008 financial crisis. "In theory, in some way linked to the US dollar, the US dollar will not be affected. However, the RMB against the US dollar will be pushed up against other currencies, and then drag the entire Chinese economy." Industrial Bank (12.51, 0.13 , 1.05%) recently said Lu Zhengwei, chief economist at the ru on the Road Forum held in Shanghai Institute of Finance and Law.
He said: RMB effective exchange rate continued to overestimate, not only affect exports, will hurt the economic vitality of systematically through the multiplier effect of three major industries.
Earlier, ADB chief economist Shang-Jin Wei worked in Shanghai Development Research Foundation sponsored the forum pointed out that the effective exchange rate overvaluation is not conducive to economic growth. China need to guard against the risk of future exchange rate overvaluation.
"Interest rates, RRR, with devaluation, economic growth next year may be the approach to take." Orient Securities chief economist Yu Shao ru On the Road in the forum Lu political commissar, agrees.
However, the devaluation of view, there are dissenting voices. Nomura Securities Asia Pacific head of FX strategy Craig Chan cuts in its review of the report, said the continuing weakness of the yuan will not only provoke international public pressure, is not conducive to the process of internationalization of the RMB and RMB become the target of an international reserve currency. "But in fact, devaluation does not mean that the expense of others, but to reflect on the basic situation of China's economy." Lu political commissar said.
Another not optimistic about the devaluation of the view that the current economic slowdown is the main reason for lack of domestic demand rather than exports. Beijing Institute chief macroeconomic researcher Zhao Qingming, financial derivatives, in the case of the current euro, the yen weakened mused, in theory, it seems to weaken the yuan should favor the real economy, but the impact of the exchange rate for exports tend to be overestimated, should not use devaluation to maintain competitiveness.
For economic growth by domestic demand rather than exports that this type of view, Lu political commissar, said the government over the past few decades in developed countries generally domestic demand as the main driver of economic growth, but the way globalization has driven the government to gradually pay attention power transferred to the competitiveness of the domestic economy, too, is a country can export his products to the extent abroad.
Throughout, the devaluation on exports beneficial, can also enhance the growth of the manufacturing and service industries.
March of this year, China People's Bank Working Paper "equilibrium real effective exchange rate of the renminbi exchange rate imbalance measure" study that began in recent years, the RMB exchange rate imbalances around zero showing a slight fluctuation, indicating that the exchange rate is close to equilibrium. Should increase the flexibility of the nominal exchange rate of the renminbi, to completely change the expected unilateral appreciation, to avoid excessive arbitrage type of capital flows and the new current account imbalances.
Before the central bank's Monetary Policy Committee member Yu Yongding, told reporters: let the market determine the exchange rate, the central bank intervention in the foreign exchange market in general is no longer inhibit short-term cross-border capital flows, accelerated development of new financial instruments. These three principles should be the current exchange rate.
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