Economic "new normal", China's foreign trade for three consecutive years failed to complete the stated objectives is almost a foregone conclusion, in this situation, the Central Economic Work Conference held attracted widespread attention.

At present, China's economy is facing overseas economic development is uneven, falling commodity prices, a strong dollar and so many uncertainties. December 8, the latest data released by the General Administration of Customs show that in the first 11 months, China's imports and exports worth 23.95 trillion yuan (6.1912, 0.0026, 0.04%), an increase of 2.2 percent over last year, a single month of November import and export growth is not expected.

The 11th meeting of the Central Economic Work Conference, from exports and international balance of payments, the international financial crisis before the international market space to expand rapidly become an important export momentum driving the rapid development of China's economy is now weak global demand, China's low-cost comparative advantage also occurred transformation, while China's exports remain competitive, high-level introduction to large scale go syncing occurs, must be intensified to foster new comparative advantages, so that exports continue to play a supporting role in economic development.

Acceptance of 21st Century Business Herald reporter interviewed analysts believe that the challenges facing China under the new normal in the short term is not conducive to the development of foreign trade, but the long-term may form a Forced mechanism. In addition, "along the way" free trade zone strategy and the strategy is expected to become a new growth point of the next trade.

New normal challenges

Currently, the global economy is in a state without a balanced, emerging markets began to appear differentiation, a strong dollar and falling commodity prices and other factors, the Chinese economy is facing increasingly complex and volatile international situation.

From the published data, the United States is one of the country's economic development remains one of the few bright spots in the Japanese economy in the third quarter fell 1.9%, yet showed growth momentum, the EU economy is currently Although six consecutive quarters of growth However, the economic recovery remains fragile, the recovery process is relatively slow.

The slump in overseas markets have a direct impact on the export of China's economic "troika" of the data show that in the first 11 months, China's import and export value of exports to achieve 13 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.4%.

Due to the strong US economy, the dollar has maintained a relatively strong position, have an impact on the nominal growth rate of China's imports and exports. Sino-US Relations Research Center of Tsinghua University, Senior Fellow, Zhou believes that in the case of the dollar to remain strong for the rest of the currency, the yuan also upgraded recently there was a substantial fluctuations in fact a greater impact on the foreign trade enterprises.

Data show that on December 10 the central parity of RMB against the US dollar has broken through the 6.12 mark, hit a new high this year, since March 3.

In addition, a strong dollar has led to major emerging economies, currency devaluation, coupled with factors such as the dollar QE exit from some developing reflux, making emerging economies significantly affected by the global economic slowdown.

Ministry of Commerce, Li Jian, director of the Institute of Foreign Trade Institute for 21st Century Business Herald reporter said that the emergence of falling commodity prices and other factors behind reflects the slowdown in the world economy and weak demand, China is likely to encounter in the medium term the relatively slow growth in the world economic environment, coupled with the weakening of the traditional advantages of its own past as well as Southeast Asian countries to join the competition, foreign trade faces more severe challenges in the medium term will be a low-speed growth.

However, the international market downturn has also brought some new opportunities for the Chinese economy, the National Development and Reform Commission of Foreign Economic Jianping, director of the Institute of International Cooperation room that because of falling commodity prices, Chinese imports have increased, the amount is still reflected in the decline but this is conducive to the implementation of China's import strategy.

Deputy director of the China Center for International Economic Exchanges Zhang Yongjun Economic Research Department of the 21st Century Business Herald reporter said that the current situation is an unfavorable situation in the short run, but in the long run, may form a Forced mechanism, international exports do not boom, prompting the country to expand domestic demand. In addition, international commodity prices, the Chinese use more resources to the international market has certain advantages.

New driver and a new balance

China's foreign trade situation Commerce Department report released earlier (Fall 2014) pointed out that in 2015 the challenge facing the development of China's foreign trade highlighted the difficult external demand rebounded significantly, China's foreign trade Competitive Advantage "lean" trade friction situation remains severe and complicated and so on.

Many accept the 21st Century Business Herald reporter interviewed experts believe that the current state is actively promoting the "along the way" and the free trade zone strategy, China's foreign trade is expected to become the new drivers.

Zhang Yongjun that "along the way" the gradual advancement and implementation of the entire Chinese exports and imports will have a good role in promoting Domestically, in order to support the implementation of "along the way" strategy, will carry out a number of supporting the construction and implementation of appropriate the reform will reduce the cost of imports and exports. The implementation of the FTA will reduce tariffs, reducing trade and investment barriers to help promote economic and trade relations with the countries and regions.

Assistant Minister of Commerce Zhang Xiangchen, has recently said that with "along the way" construction, China's strategy echoes around the recipient made a series of requests for assistance, according to the Commerce Department will study each other's needs and the actual ability to expand the scale of assistance.

December 5 meeting of the Politburo meeting also asked to release the potential of domestic demand and promoting balanced import and export, foreign investment and foreign investment balance, the progressive realization of the basic balance of international payments.

Central Economic Work Conference also proposed to be more active in promoting domestic and external demand balance, import and export balance, foreign investment and foreign investment balance, the progressive realization of the international balance of payments, the new system to build an open economy. To improve policies to expand exports and increase imports, consolidate export market share, improve the investment environment, a stable foreign investment scale and speed, improve the quality of foreign investment, foreign investment and strive to improve the efficiency and quality.

21st Century Business Herald reporter learned that the balance of imports and exports, to be related to interest rates, exchange rates and other factors, at present, the State Council has issued "Opinions on Strengthening the import of" import promotion requires a proactive strategy to strengthen technical products and services imports, promote international balance of payments, to enhance the level of openness and cooperation.

   Zhang Xiangchen said, according to the estimated 10 percent this year, the amount of foreign direct investment in China will reach 120 billion, more than the amount of foreign investment to attract foreign investment amount is only a matter of time.

Li Jian, the analysts said, there are still some domestic domestic demand has not been met, from a trade perspective, there is still an example of domestic demand for high-quality goods on the international market, but due to higher import prices, or the reasons for some of the controls, which part of pent up demand.

Zhang Yongjun predicted that the long-term sustainability of the past "double surplus" situation will change, on the one hand China commodity output growth slowed, the growth rate than in the past so fast, and the export of capital render the whole trend of expansion in the coming years, in In this case, the output of capital goods output will have the leading role, will change the pattern of international payments. This accumulation of China's foreign exchange reserves had also a digestive process.

Gao said the next step of China's foreign trade exports will be a qualitative change. Due to the fact that China has to export of capital era, China's foreign investment and China's foreign trade will be tightly bound together, "along the way" of the strategic vision and mutual complementarity in the export of capital goods has been output at the same time, including consumer and investment of capital exports, a trend that has become increasingly evident.