2018/4/24
Central Economic Work Conference concluded soon, recently accepted the "Economic Information Daily" reporters, economists predict that next year macroeconomic policy will continue the proactive fiscal policy and prudent monetary policy mix in neutral as the main feature . Next year's economic policy will seek to balance multiple objectives , while pursuing "structural adjustment" "steady growth" and " pro- reform " three goals.
Economists believe that the pursuit of multi-objective balance , on the one hand the need to maintain the continuity and stability of policy , stabilize market expectations , releasing strong signal to the community to promote structural adjustment , as the market self-regulation necessary to leave enough space ; hand, comprehensively promote the market-oriented reform key areas , to create a fair competitive market environment , play a decisive role in laying of the market in allocating resources for a solid foundation.
"The current economic stabilization in the overall dip , while the effect of the previous rounds of regulation so that the new government recognizes that maintaining stable than strengthen the regulation and control policies more conducive to stable economic growth . Based on this understanding , the macro-control policies will be expected next year continue the proactive fiscal policy and prudent monetary policy matched the pattern, but does not rule out specific focus fine-tuning may be . " Dean CASS Institute of Finance strategic Aim for ," said economic Information Daily " reporters .
December 3rd meeting of the Politburo meeting of economists believe that economic work next year set the policy tone . The Politburo meeting pointed out that 2014 will continue to adhere to the overall tone of the work progress while maintaining stability , reform throughout all aspects of economic and social development in various fields , reform promoting innovation and development , and improve regulation by means of strengthening the economic development mode shift raw power , speed up economic structural adjustment and optimization , strengthen basic public service system , so that the masses share the achievements of reform and development , and promote the sustained and healthy economic development, social harmony and stability. The meeting clearly maintain policy continuity and stability , and actively promote the reform of key areas .
Development Research Center of the State Council Li Boxi researcher said that the current Chinese economy has entered a stage of rapid development in the CPC Central Committee and State Council are correct understanding and judgment , to take a "steady growth, structural adjustment " policy , which is very correct, 2014 in continuing to pursue such a macro-policy orientation . China's economy has entered a new stage of development , the ongoing profound transformation and structural adjustment, which is very necessary. CCTV Financial commentator�����also said that 2014 is to implement the Third Plenary Session of eighteen " decision on deepening the reform of the overall number of major issues ," the first year , "structural adjustment" , "steady growth" and " pro- reform " in parallel , "stability" is " stable and promising ," " maintaining stability " and to the "structural adjustment" complement each other in advance of market forces to stimulate the economy endogenous motivation , encourage private investment and consumption growth , accelerate the rapid development of tertiary industry , and to achieve structural balance .
CASS vice president Li Yang believes that macroeconomic policies aimed at restructuring, nurture potential for future economic growth , and can be summarized as " stable macro and micro invigorate ." The core of this policy shift , the shift from a focus on demand management mechanisms foster supply concerns , attention turned to incentives, efficiency, competitiveness , productivity and capital formation , etc. These help to improve potential output factors. Such macroeconomic policy easing would be a system of regulation and reform arrangements to stimulate the market's vitality . It aims to reduce market access barriers , reduce the tax burden , a series of reforms to reduce financing costs and other institutional mechanisms to stimulate the vitality of the body corporate ; through the lifting of the rigid constraints of institutional mechanisms to improve the efficiency of factor markets , to enhance the whole economy competitiveness.
Seek to balance multiple objectives , put forward new requirements for the 2014 economic policy. Firstly, at the macro policy level, still have to implement the proactive fiscal policy and prudent monetary policy , but the emphasis would like to tilt the supply -side management . " Proactive fiscal policy in 2014 to focus on a combination of short-term and long-term effects , both to steady growth , but also take into account the foster future economic growth. Promote economic restructuring by optimizing the direction of investment to promote economic restructuring, to achieve a more robust and balanced growth . " Chinese academy of Social Sciences , deputy director Li Xuesong [ microblogging ] said. He gives four specific recommendations: continue to improve the structural tax policies to support the real economy, especially the development of small and micro enterprises ; maintain the basic stability of the deficit ratio to optimize the debt structure ; make good use of incremental funding to improve the efficiency of financial capital ; reasonable control of local government debt levels , the effective prevention and control of local debt risks.
In monetary policy, the deputy director of the People's Bank survey also focused on the four Division Wang considered , including: the introduction of a deposit insurance system as soon as possible , and steadily push forward interest rate market , improve financial macro-control system ; promote interbank deposit certificate issued to promote interbank business securitization standardize business development industry ; improve banking competition levels, and promote the healthy development of the banking sector ; pair to circumvent the purpose of macro-prudential policies to regulate lending in disguise , to promote the " shadow banking " sunshine .
In terms of industrial policy , effective solution to the problem of excess production capacity will be key consideration . Secretary-General of China Society of Macroeconomics Wang on the "Economic Information Daily" reporters , said: " is the starting point for a correct understanding of the contradictions to resolve the contradiction , then what is China's current principal contradiction I think is overproduction , so the reform and restructuring should be around ? the center expanded , otherwise difficult to see results . " Li Yang also said that in the future , one of the main tasks of macroeconomic regulation and control is an effective solution to the problem of overcapacity .
But to solve the problem of excess and reform together. Comprehensive Department of NDRC said that 2014 should further optimize the economic structure, improve conducive to resolve the problem of overcapacity institutional mechanisms . Li Yang said that to solve the overcapacity policy tools should be through reforms , mainly looking for from the supply side . Must abandon in order to create new investment needs to eliminate excess capacity of traditional practices, by reducing government intervention should give full play to the role of business and markets to grow my blind final suppression of domestic energy .
Zhang Ping , deputy director of the CASS Institute of Economics predicts that in 2014 China will comprehensively promote tax reform , financial reform , state-owned enterprise reform , administrative reform and price reform . His " Economic Information Daily" reporters , said in fiscal reforms , preparation of national and local balance sheets will continue to strengthen the investment entity monitoring , and research center , local expenditures divided proportion of resource tax reform and the consumption tax will also expand the scope of taxation ; in terms of financial reform , the establishment of public -owned banks will lower the threshold , the state will set up a number of new policy-oriented financial institutions , deposit insurance will accelerate construction , will increase the rate of exchange rate fluctuations , the pilot will accelerate FTA ; in SOE reform , the SASAC will gradually change the positioning , from the original tube SOE balance sheet just part of the whole table to the owner's equity , the SAC 's work will focus on capital appreciation ; in terms of administrative reform , decentralization will further intensify ; price reform , the reform of public goods price range will be expanded .
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