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The summer Davos China Li Keqiang economic "hard landing" to dispel worries

2018/4/24

Premier Li Keqiang attended the opening ceremony and delivered a special speech at the opening ceremony of the summer Davos 10. Li Keqiang pointed out that once the economy appears to slide a reasonable range of signs, we will have the ability to deal with, the Chinese economy will not be a hard landing, which is not empty talk.

It must be admitted that, under the joint action of internal and external contradictions, the Chinese economy has indeed a certain range of fluctuations, some of the economic activities of some deep-seated contradictions and problems, and also exposed in such fluctuations. However, this does not mean that the Chinese economy is facing serious risks, but can not think that the risks of the Chinese economy will spread to the whole world.

In fact, the problems facing the Chinese economy, especially the economic downward pressure, in addition to the impact of the financial crisis and the impact of more or more challenges in the process of self adjustment. Over the past 30 years, the rapid growth of China's economy is mainly rely on extensive development, low-end manufacturing, resource consumption, labor dividends and other forms, and all this, for today's China, the vast majority has no advantage, some more has become an obstacle to economic development. In such a situation, China take the initiative to adjust, take the initiative to optimize the way, so that the contradictions and problems exposed in the economic activities, so the situation of economic slowdown is normal.

Facing these new problems, the Chinese government neither panic, there is no blind optimism, but rather a rainy day, combined with Chinese practical situation, take effective countermeasures, such as the introduction of directional control and differentiated policies, so that the economy has been in a controllable range, not out of the acceptable range.

With the role of the policies and measures to gradually play, China's economy has been in many aspects of the signs of improvement, such as the situation of private enterprises in the import and export trade has been significantly improved, Guangdong, Jiangsu and other major economic fluctuations in the province, the United States, ASEAN exports to maintain good posture, etc.. At the same time, Keqiang index of electricity consumption, railway transportation volume has shown a growth trend, these are positive factors, a sign of policy is also play a role.

Because of this, as long as the world economy is not a serious problem, China economic "hard landing" may be very small. From Premier Li Keqiang's speech is not difficult to see, although the phenomenon of short-term fluctuations still exist, but the innovative macro-control policy tools in the toolbox, there are a lot of, so no matter how large the magnitude of short-term fluctuations, China is a good ability to control economic development trend, so that the economy is in a reasonable range of. Even due to the influence of various factors, the short term there beyond the reasonable range of the phenomenon, also can through the tools in the toolbox of economic implementation of effective regulation, and there is no reason to let China's economic "hard landing".

Of course, economic fluctuations will occur, especially the PPI continued to decline, and the volatility of the increase, which means that the deep-seated contradictions and risks in the past economic activities have not been completely released, there is still likely to have a negative impact on China's economy in a short period of time. Therefore, it is necessary to use the tools of the policy tools in a timely, orderly and controllable way.

In short, do not worry about excessive economic Chinese will appear "hard landing", also do not have to risk China deliberately rendering the economy. Whether China's economy can shorten the period of adjustment is a problem that must be carefully considered. Before, the Ministry of finance Lou Jiwei believes that China's economic restructuring needs to experience four or five years of pain, which is relatively optimistic estimate and analysis, can successfully complete the transformation, the need for joint efforts.